Mercedes Can Win the Title in the São Paulo Grand Prix, and This Time I Want George to Start the Party

Before Austin, I was asking Kimi Antonelli to wait because I still wanted George Russell to have a chance at the title. Then Mexico happened, I saw Kimi celebrating with Sir Max and Lewis Hamilton, and there I was getting emotional over the very thing I’d asked him to postpone. Now Mercedes can win the Constructors’ Championship at the São Paulo Grand Prix, and I’m quite happy for them to finish the job early. Especially if George gets to be the one who wins it for them.

Interlagos is a lovely place for him to do it, too. George took his first F1 win here in 2022, with Lewis bringing the other Mercedes home in second. I’d happily take a repeat of that on Sunday, although Lewis, just to be clear, that invitation was for the other Mercedes. You’re in the Ferrari now, and I’ve seen the points.

You can see why I fancy a race between those two here. Interlagos is a short lap, just 4.309 km, with 15 corners run anticlockwise. Down the back straight, the Reta Oposta, I’ll be looking at who’s quicker. Through the twisty middle of the lap, I’ll be watching who can stay close. That’s the bit I enjoy: George might have Lewis covered on the straight, but if Lewis is still right behind him when they reach Junção, the left-hander before the long climb back to the pits, I’m already worrying about George. And they do this for 71 laps. Lovely.

What I love about Interlagos is that the fight for Turn 1 starts before the cars have even finished the previous lap. Get a better exit from the last slow left-hander and you can follow the car ahead all the way uphill, pull alongside on the main straight and have a go into the Senna S. The bit I’ll be watching is who gets the better exit from there, because there’s another straight and another chance into Turn 4. Imagine doing all that work to get past Max, only to find him next to you again. I’d enjoy that. Unless it’s George, in which case I’d quite like Max to admire the view for a lap.

So, what does George actually need to do? Mercedes lead Ferrari 630 points to 504. After Brazil, there’ll be 129 points left to win. If Mercedes score just three more points than Ferrari on Sunday, the best Ferrari could do is finish the season level. Mercedes would still take the title because they’ve won more races. Four points settles it without a tiebreaker, but three gets the trophy just the same.

A Mercedes one-two does it, of course. A win with the other car third or fourth also does it, wherever the Ferraris finish. If both Mercedes finish in the top five and neither Ferrari makes the podium, that’s enough too. And if Lewis and Charles Leclerc both leave empty-handed, eighth place for George or Kimi will do. I like that there’s a version where George finishes eighth and Mercedes celebrate like they’ve won the championship. Mostly because they actually have.

Mind you, Ferrari have outscored Mercedes at the last four rounds. Lewis is also about to make his 400th Grand Prix start, at a circuit where he’s won three times. I’d love to see what he and Charles can do here if they give each other a little more room than they did in Mexico. There are plenty of other cars to race, gentlemen. Pick one.

Further back, Gabriel Bortoleto gets to race that São Paulo Audi livery in front of his home crowd, and he won’t be the only Brazilian they’re cheering for. Rafael Câmara is making his F1 debut with Haas. First Grand Prix, at home, at Interlagos. I hope someone reminds him to take a second and actually look at the grandstands before the lights go out.

My pick for Sunday? George to win, Sir Max second and Kimi third to bring the title home. Max has won three of the last four, so yes, picking George ahead of him involves a little favouritism. But I’ve done the maths, and I can confirm favouritism is still allowed on my own blog.

George, I’ve put you first and Sir Max second. If Max overtakes you on the last lap, I’ll be the idiot cheering and shouting “NO!” at the same time.
aKi Malik